Candidates strive to get out message in absence of media attention

Matthew Curtis, Brewster McCracken’s campaign manager, is proud of his candidate and his campaign, which has already raised $100,000 for the race to fill Place 5. McCracken has also done well in the endorsement arena, which has been important in recent Council races. However, Curtis admits that it may be tough to win the seat outright on May 3, with six other candidates in the race. The scenario he wants to avoid is a runoff. That would add another month and an untold number of dollars to the campaign. “The really tough thing with this race is . . . Brewster’s a lawyer, but not a wealthy one . . . I think some of our opponents have a lot of personal wealth.” But the only opponent he’s really worried about is Margot Clarke, believing that she can write a check from her own account for a large TV buy.

Clarke provided a “guesstimate” of $80-$100,000 for her campaign budget, but said she does not have the money Curtis thinks she has. “I don’t consider myself personally wealthy, but I am going to put some of my own money into the campaign,” she said. Clarke pointed out that she had been working for non-profit corporations such as the League of Conservation Voters Education Fund and Planned Parenthood for the past several years. Clarke said she did not know the price of TV advertising, but would be meeting with a media buyer this week. “I think it’s a fairly established fact that you can’t win a citywide campaign without television, because you can’t reach the voters.” Clarke agreed that would not necessarily be true of incumbents, but noted, “They’re on TV every week.” McCracken ran TV ads in his attempt to unseat Beverly Griffith last year. He lost to Betty Dunkerley, but his name and face will not be totally unfamiliar to the most committed voters this year.

Cost has gone up, up, up

In Fact Daily talked to a number of consultants to learn how much advertising prices might have changed since Austinites enacted the $100 per person contribution limit in 1997. Dee Anne Heath with GSD&M said, “From 1997 to the most current rates for 2003, there was a 73 percent increase,” in television advertising costs. Heath said the 2002 Governor’s race—with advertising that started early and kept pounding through Election Day—is one reason for the dramatic increase.

“So . . . we were looking for things to get a little better,” this year, she said, “but we’re really not seeing things fall off a whole lot from 2002.” Heath added that rates have declined about 20 percent since their peak in May of last year.

Last May, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tony Sanchez came into the market “with some soft political dollars and he really began a campaign that surpassed any amount of media spent,” prior to that, she said. As far as campaign buys, she said, “You can go and purchase a substantial amount of media for $50,000.” However, that amount might not be enough to purchase the highly prized news adjacencies that the most committed voters are known to watch. She said $90-100,000 would allow a candidate to buy a sufficient number of spots on several different stations for four to five weeks of advertising, beginning in early to mid-April. Looking back at 1997, Heath said, $50,000 “would’ve been more than you needed.” As little as $30,000 might have been sufficient then, she said.

Monica Davis, founder of the Davis Group, has placed advertising for numerous political candidates, including Council Members Danny Thomas and Jackie Goodman. Davis compared the prices for a 30-second ad adjacent to the 6pm news, noting that one station has recently lowered its rates by more than 50 percent, but the other three local stations have more than doubled their rates.

She said some ads adjacent to the 10pm news that cost about $700 in 1997, are now selling for $1500, although a less popular station may have dropped its rates considerably. “It depends on the station’s ratings,” or market share, Davis explained, “But it’s pretty evident that it’s doubling or more than doubling” in a six-year time period.

Stanely, Slusher say stations ignoring campaigns

Consultant and fundraiser Alfred Stanley said that last year’s budget for Mayor Pro Tem Jackie Goodman’s re-election campaign was $60,000, which, “basically ran her petition campaign, with little else. Four years ago were able to have TV in campaign.” He explained that conventional wisdom in the field has been that a candidate needs to get 1000 points, although he is not certain that the formula works in the fragmented television world of 2003. “The only thing that makes sense to me is to try to buy as many news adjacencies as possible,” he said.

Stanley said that when Mayor Gus Garcia ran for a Council seat in 1991, television advertising was $25 a gross rating point. By 1993, when Goodman first won her seat, the price had risen to $33 a gross rating point, and by the time Kirk Watson ran in 1997, the price was more than $100 per point. Most disappointing to Stanley is that TV stations now routinely ignore news coming out of political campaigns, so virtually all media coverage is purchased—at an ever-rising cost.

Council Member Daryl Slusher told In Fact Daily, “Basically, they cover nothing on the campaigns and right after the election they do a story bemoaning the low turnout.”

Political consultant David Butts said, “The price has gone up and the ability to pay for it has gone down because of the $100 limit. You simply cannot raise enough money at $100.” Butts does not believe that contributions should be unlimited, but agreed that the rules should contain an escalator clause. The consultant said, “If you’re an unknown, you are at a terrible disadvantage unless you can write a personal check . . . It doesn’t matter how many friends you have, you may not be able to raise enough money.” Butts is assisting Will Wynn, who was elected three years ago in a run-off over a candidate with fewer financial resources. Butts noted that Wynn spent somewhere between $50,000 and $70,000 out of his own pocket for the 2000 race. “If your opponent is on TV and you’re not, your opponent may look more credible. If you can’t, you’re at a definite disadvantage.”

On the other hand, Butts said, mayoral candidates Marc Katz and Brad Meltzer “could spend a lot of money, I guess. I’m not sure to what effect.” He added, “My hunch is Marc Katz has more name recognition (than the other mayoral candidates), but that doesn’t necessarily mean people are going to vote for him for Mayor,” because of, among other things, the “unwanted publicity” stemming from a lawsuit pitting him against his son. Butts believes that the race is “Will Wynn’s to win . . . It’s just a question of whether there’s a runoff.” He predicted Max Nofziger would run his usual low-budget campaign, but would probably fare better than he did when he last ran for Mayor in 1997.

Postage rate increases also pushed up costs

On top of the increased costs of TV time, postal rates have gone up three times since 1997, says James Aldrete of MAP. Aldrete assisted Council Member Betty Dunkerley in her campaign last year and is currently working with the McCracken campaign. “The post office requires more information so you’re paying more data costs,” Aldrete noted. In addition, the city’s population has grown, so candidates must send out more printed advertising. Overall printing costs have increased too, but not dramatically, he said. “You are paying four to five cents per piece more than in 1997,” he said. Last year’s mail piece for Dunkerley to 30,000 voters would cost $1500 more than it would have in 1997.

Finally, this year’s election has an added dilemma for candidates struggling to get their messages out to voters—the war in Iraq. McCracken’s campaign manager, Curtis, says campaigns always want to put their messages on television, but he is unsure when that advertising should begin or whether anyone will pay attention once it does. “I don’t know . . . Everybody says when there’s a war—even if you bought 1000 points—you could be pre-empted for (that coverage). That’s a really tough thing we have to consider: the state of the war and how much people are even going to be paying attention.”,

Thursday, Friday.

Today’s City Council meeting . . . This week’s agenda features few really controversial issues, but an amendment to the city’s Land Development Code to define super-duplexes is scheduled for a 6pm public hearing. The Planning Commission considered the matter just last night, so the Council will have little time to look at any recommendations they may have had. The still unresolved issues between the city and Travis County appear on the agenda, but there is little likelihood of a sudden resolution . . . Tonight’s Barton Springs forum . . . For those who have wondered why the American-Statesman keeps putting Barton Springs on the front page, tonight’s community forum will provide few clues. But health and environmental experts who have been studying the springs will talk about their findings beginning at 6:30pm at the Palmer Events Center, Rooms 1-5. The forum is funded by the MD Anderson Cancer Center. Michael Honeycutt, senior toxicologist for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, said he found nothing new in yesterday’s Statesman story. He said from a public health perspective the pollution that has been found in the pool is “not a big deal.” He said a cleanup—if one is warranted—would not take a long time and would not further delay reopening the pool. Honeycutt is expected to expand on these thoughts tonight. Council Member Daryl Slusher has also released his preliminary report on the springs, headlined, “Experts say Barton Springs is safe for swimming” . . . Tickets available for Scruggs’ concert . . . Children’s performer Joe Scruggs will give a benefit concert for the Open Door Preschools on Sunday at 3:30 pm at Westlake High School Performing Arts Center. The benefit will be the only Austin appearance for Scruggs—the darling of the three-to-nine-year-old crowd. The non-profit organization offers preschool experience for children from a wide range of income and ability levels. Mayor Pro Tem Jackie Goodman was once a teacher at the school. Tickets may be purchased in advance at any HEB or at the door. For more information, call Ann Denkler at 349-7253.

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